The baptism of the new world champion

Today the field tried out the tricky conditions at the shakedown stage, held in Valence. The results did not reveal anything really, but we interpret the timing board like this:

VW Motorsport looks ready and will be competitive. The question mark will be the reliability of the VW Polo WRC. Latvala was quicker, and was reportedly on studs on his first run. Ogier is probably slower on snow, but will be the one to watch in the German squad.

Qatar M-Sport WRT has the youngest team in the WRC right now. Spearheaded by Mads Ostberg, the team is aiming for the manufacturer's title this year. He was on pace with his team mate Evgeny Novikov on todays shakedown. Belgian Thierry Neuville was slightly quicker later on, when the conditions was wet rather than slushy. Juho Hanninen was just slightly slower than the youngsters. The team seems strong and we think Ostberg and Hanninen will be close to the podium this week. Novikov has the strongest "ice-crew", with Francois Delecour and Denis Giraudet giving him updates on the stages and what tires to best suited. If he avoids any mistakes, he can be the surprise of the rally. Neuville does not stand a chance as the rally seem to be more suited to the ones with pace on snow this year. He needs to rely on weather change, not likely to happen.

Citroen Total Abu Dhabi WRT has the strongest package of all. With legend Sebastien Loeb leading the french manufacturer here, they are favourites. Both Dani Sordo and Mikko Hirvonen are potential winners of the event, but Loeb is the winner without doubt. He is fast on snow, an alien on tarmac and knows these stages better than anyone in the field. So only tyre tactics and technical problems can stop him, in our opinion. We know that Citroen almost never make the wrong tyre choice, so it will be interesting to see if it will be any difference this year.

Worth noticing are Martin Prokop in Ford Fiesta and Michal Kosciuszko in Mini, both on Dmack tyres. We will see if they can challenge any of the factory drivers. Kosciuszko won the PWRC here last year and if he can keep up with Prokop, I think he will be satisfied. Both need to be consistent to break into top 8. Bryan Bouffier has his debut in a WRC-spec car and has the biggest potential to split the top teams of the privateers. Previous winner here and an experienced driver on these stages, he has already competed in similar conditions this year. Bouffier challenged Jan Kopecky for the win in Jannerrallye just a fortnight ago, as the event kicked off the ERC-season. He missed out on the victory by just a half a second. Slowly building speed, he can with the right strategy, throw in a bid for a podium place. But that requires luck and some retirements among the top drivers. Julien Maurin is the last one of the privateers, but he needs dry conditions. Even then, he is going to struggle to fight his way into the top ten. And this event will not be dry, that is for sure.

What is guaranteed already, is that a new world champion will be crowned this year and he is at the start line tomorrow. Will he start the campaign by winning or will Loeb win in his last outing here? Snow, slush, ice, wet tarmac and dry tarmac - welcome to the iconic event that is Rally Monte Carlo!
 

Photo: Honza Fronek